P2P REVIEW: JANUARY 2019
We at Fiscal Frontiers are not investment advisers and our only goal is to report to you on the performance of investments we have made so that you can consider our experience along with all the other information available to make an informed decision on what is best for you. Peer-to-peer loans are inherently risky and all of a particular loan could be lost.
If you’re interested in how we did in 2018, you can check out our January post on that topic.
We started 2019 with funds in two different platforms: Mintos Marketplace and Lending Loop. We have done our best to curate as much useful information from these two services as possible, but let us know in the comments,in a message through this site, or on twitter @fiscalfrontiers if you have any questions about other things you’d like to know, or of things that you think we should be keeping track of.
THE BIG PICTURE
Both of our P2P accounts are on track for double digit return on investment (ROI) in 2019 after one month in the books, summarized as follows:
One of the biggest differences between our two portfolios is that our Mintos account has buyback guarantees on all of its loans, meaning that while we may miss interest payments, we should, in theory, never lose any of our principal. In contrast, our Lending Loop account does not have this kind of guarantee, so our two troublesome loans, representing $49.30 of outstanding principal, could be entirely lost, which necessarily weighs down our ROI.
If you are interested in investing in Lending Loop, then you can click this link to earn an additional $25 once you lend your first $1,500 on the platform.
As of January 31, 2019, we had $1,013.88 of outstanding notes on Lending Loop broken down by loan grade like this:
Through January 2019 we made $12.02 of interest revenue. Deducted from that revenue, we paid Lending Loop total fees of $1.26 ($0.03/loan payment) and lost $0.72 of unpaid principal, which has become delinquent. Thus our January income was $12.02 - $1.26 - $0.72 = $10.04, graphed like this:
In total, we have 43 loans outstanding, and 2 of those are in distress (more than 15 days late on at least one payment). Those distressed loans are graded C and D. However, even though we had 41 loans in good standing at the end of the month, we still received 10 payments late (between 1 and 7 days), and even though they were all squared up at the end of the month, it is worth keeping an eye on those tardy payment rates because they could be a sign of trouble to come. The chart below shows the two principal payments that were delinquent (in yellow), the 10 that were received late (in red) along with the 31 payments made in a timely fashion (in blue):
If you are interested in investing in Mintos, then you can click this link to receive 1% cashback on your average daily invested balance over your first three months.
As of January 31, 2019, we had €965.60 of outstanding notes on Mintos, broken down by loan grade like this:
Through January 2019 we made €8.27 of interest income. Since we have guaranteed buybacks on any of our loans that go unpaid for 60 days, even though we have loans that are delinquent, no money will actually be lost from them, so the €8.27 represents our final income, earned as follows:
Even with a buyback guarantee in place, something we are keeping an eye on at Fiscal Frontiers is the percentage of our loans that are going unpaid and which need to take advantage of the buyback guarantee. The below table illustrates the problem. The table shows the percentage of each loan category that is either current or late, with lighter blues meaning it is more and more late. As you can see, our B+ to A loans are in good condition. But our C+ to B loans are struggling a bit:
This is important because the buyback guarantee only gives us back our principal. To the extent that there was unpaid interest on a particular loan, that interest is lost forever. Because of this, we have created a new type of graph, that tracks the percentage of our total portfolio that is in arrears and approaching a buyback event.
Looking at the chart below you can see that the current and grace period areas of the chart (blues) remain pretty constant, though the top part of the chart (yellow, orange, red) get progressively redder, which is, on the one hand, bad, because that means there is less chance of ever collecting, but on the other hand, good, because it is closer to getting bought back so the funds can be recycled back into our portfolio.
Check back next week as we take a look at the performance of our robo advisors through the first month of 2019.