INVESTING FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

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  • Fiscal Frontiers

P2P REVIEW: 2019 YTD

APRIL 30, 2019 UPDATE

(Disclaimer at end of post)


INTRODUCTION

If you’re interested in how we did in 2018, you can check out our January post on that topic.


We started 2019 with funds in two different platforms: Mintos Marketplace and Lending Loop. We have done our best to curate as much useful information from these two services as possible, but let us know in the comments, in a message through this site, or on twitter @fiscalfrontiers if you have any questions about other things you’d like to know, or of things that you think we should be keeping track of.


THE BIG PICTURE


With a new month in the books, both our Mintos and our Lending Loop accounts have continued their upward trends, with revenue outpacing fees and missed payments, through the first four months of the year. Happily, both accounts have rebounded for increased income and increased expected annual returns, reversing the trend of 3 straight months of declines in both of those categories. You’ll see the 2019 trend under each of the headings below, but first, a snapshot of where we stood on April 30, 2019:

Read on below for a month-by-month breakdown of how these accounts are earning their income and how we track it.

MINTOS MARKETPLACE


If you are interested in investing in Mintos, you can click this link to receive 1% cashback on your average daily invested balance over your first three months.


One of the great things about Mintos is the guaranteed buyback of defaulting loans. What this means is that your account should always be on an upward trend, even if there is some variance in the ascent from month-to-month. The history of our account looks like this so far:

The last row of the table (2019 ROI) is a calculation of what our return on investment would be for 2019 if the income we’d earned up to the end of the particular month was sustained for the rest of the year. With another month in the books, it looks like perhaps our month-over-month decline for the first three months may have actually only been a dip and our ROI is returning to January/February levels. It will be interesting to see what another month brings.


Through 2019, the graph of our account looks like this:

As of April 30, 2019, we had €955.72 of outstanding notes on Mintos, broken down by loan grade like this:

The table on the left shows the actual dollars of each kind of loan grade, while the one on the right is a percentage breakdown. The more dark blue on the above tables, the better. The month-to-month change is captured by the next chart.


The next chart shows our whole portfolio on a day-by-day basis, as it becomes more or less delinquent. Looking at it, the two shades of blue represent the loans which are in good standing or in their grace period. Alternatively, the warmer colours (yellow, orange, and red) represent loans that are progressively later. The more blue on the chart, the better!

The two blues in the above chart represent the portion of our Mintos portfolio that was either not late or only in its grace period. In contrast, the three warm colours represent the portion of our account that was starting to run late as of the end of April. More delinquent loans mean less interest income, so we definitely want more blue. There seems to be a definite rollercoaster appearing in our chart, so we hope to see the blues start to overtake the yellow, orange and red in May. Stay tuned!

LENDING LOOP


If you are interested in investing in Lending Loop, you can click on this link to earn an additional $25 once you lend your first $1,500 on the platform.


Unlike our Mintos account, our Lending Loop account can be a little harder to track the performance of. While Lending Loop will show you the value of your outstanding principal and cash balance at any given time, this is not necessarily the best reflection of your portfolio, since it does not account for the fact that some of that principal is going un-repaid and may be lost forever. Because of this, we at Fiscal Frontiers like to dig through the data to come up with a better reflection of our account’s performance.


The below table shows how much interest we’ve earned in a particular period, but we subtract from that amount any fees paid to Lending Loop or missed principal payments. To be fair, if a principal payment that was missed in a prior period gets paid in a later period, we add that in as income in that later month under “recouped principal”.


For example, if you look at the below table, we made $22.72 of income and paid $2.16 of fees to Lending Loop in 2018, but we missed $2.35 of principal repayments. At the end of the year, there was no telling if those payments would be received, so it made sense to subtract them from our income. Now, having sifted through the data, that $2.35 has actually been repaid in 2019 and we have added it into our 2019 income. Our 2018/2019 income looks like this so far:

Once we get our calculation of profit for a given time period, it is easy to take that and calculate our real or projected return on investment:

The 2019 ROI row simply shows what our annual ROI would be if we earned income at that rate based on all the information we had available up to that point (without any compounding). For example, if we continued to earn $13.38 every month, for all of 2019, like we did in January, then our annual ROI would be 15.77%.


As of April 28, 2019, we had $1,021.61 of outstanding notes on Lending Loop broken down by loan grade like this:

The table on the left shows the actual dollars of each kind of loan grade, while the one on the right is the percentage breakdown.


Our account is on an upward trend, with the chart below showing the upward climb. Note that the below chart does not account for the fact that some of our loans have missed payments and may default, costing us our remaining principal. That said, over the long term, any lost principal will show up eventually, so we are not overly concerned when looking at a long-term trend like this.

CONCLUSION


We were happy to see an uptick in both portfolios, as it would have been disappointing to see another month of decreasing income and rate of return. Here’s hoping that May 2019 sees another jump in earnings. As for the rest of this month, stay tuned next week for our update on how our two robo-investors have been doing!


We at Fiscal Frontiers are not investment advisers and our only goal is to report to you on the performance of investments we have made so that you can consider our experience along with all the other information available to make an informed decision on what is best for you. Peer-to-peer loans are inherently risky and all of a particular loan could be lost.

 
 

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